Bulletin on Private Debt in the Greek economy (Issue 3)

The bulletin, in collaboration with CEPAL, offers a quarterly, descriptive assessment of global and domestic economic environment with emphasis on real estate market and private debt dynamics. It includes analysis of key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and its components, inflation developments and labor market trends. It also reviews fiscal performance, developments in the financial sector, and trends across selected sectors of the economy. A particular focus is placed on the real estate market and its interaction with private debt, drawing on data and analytical insights provided by ReDataset. Each issue features a special thematic section examining specific aspects of the Greek economy. The third issue covers a deep dive in the new housing supply in Athens and Thessaloniki during 2025-2026.

Globally, the war in the Middle East contributed to increased volatility in energy prices and a resurgence of inflationary pressures in 2026. The Greek economy posted annual growth of 1.9% in Q2, compared with 1.0% in the Eurozone, driven by fixed investment, private consumption, and exports. In the housing market, prices rose further in the first half of the year, with a stronger trend for newly built one-bedroom homes in major urban centers, such as Thessaloniki. Housing supply is increasing, but its composition varies significantly by region, e.g. newly built properties in the southern and northern suburbs of Athens, versus older homes re-entering the market in the city center and Piraeus.

Total private debt reached €420.9 billion (169% of GDP) in Q1 2026, driven primarily by credit expansion which is positive and secondarily by the accumulation of overdue debt to the public sector. Debt in arrears stood at €238.6 billion, with overdue obligations to AADE and EFKA accounting for almost 70% of arrears. Total private debt in loans rose to €254.6 billion, driven mainly by business lending. The NPL ratio held by banks and servicers eased at 28.4%, with servicers managing around 90% of total NPLs.

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